Philippines tweaks 2024 GDP growth target, revises outlook for 2025-2028

MANILA : The Philippines has narrowed its economic growth target for 2024 to a range of 6.0 per cent to 6.5 per cent, down from a top end of 7 per cent previously, and revised its outlook through 2028 amid domestic and external uncertainties, a government panel said on Monday.
“We are moving in a more uncertain world,” Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan told a news conference, adding that global events could provide domestic headwinds while U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff agenda could impact the country in either direction.
Finance Secretary Ralph Recto on Monday told a briefing the Philippines could still “realistically” grow by 6.0 per cent this year.
At the same time, the Philippines also widened its growth target for 2025-2028 to a range of 6.0 per cent to 8.0 per cent, from 6.5 per cent to 7.5 per cent for 2025 and 6.5 per cent to 8.0 per cent in 2026-2028 in the June meeting to reflect “evolving domestic and global uncertainties.”
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is due to finish his single, six-year term in 2028.
The Philippine economy grew 5.2 per cent in the third quarter, its weakest in more than a year, as adverse weather disrupted government spending and dampened farm output. It brought year-to-date growth to 5.8 per cent.
The Philippine peso is expected to average 57 to 57.50 per dollar for 2024, from an earlier assumption of 56 to 58, the interagency said.
The government changed its peso assumption to 56 to 58 per dollar for 2025 from 55 to 58, but maintained it at 55 to 58 for 2026 to 2028.
There is still a chance for the Philippine peso, which closed at 58.655 per dollar on Monday and touched an intraday record low more than a week ago, to be broadly stable over the medium term, central bank Deputy Governor Francisco Dakila told the same news conference.
The interagency panel revised its inflation assumption for 2024 to a range of 3.1 per cent to 3.3 per cent, from 3.0 per cent to 4.0 per cent, and maintained it at 2.0 per cent to 4.0 per cent for 2025 to 2028.